London - Eurozone - Traders - Protests

Lots of things have happened since my last real blog post, tumblrs mostly been an image feed...

Ive been based in London for the past 3 months, and still have a few months left... Made me realize Im getting old... And indeed dying...

Not of anything in particular, but the reality of aging is in the mirror. Thank God Im not blind to that.

Not that my stay here has been depressing, or anything, but stop reading if you think this is going in that direction :-)

My timing here is interesting: Ive been sent to basically gain insight on markets in a semi-internship type job... and what Im seeing is interesting.

Ive seen the "Occupy London" protest go from an organized mess, to rank and file tents... Ive talked to commodity traders who had no business in physical commodities work in cross-asset arbitrage models... Ive talked to a former producer-trader whose hedging strategy included "rebalancing"...

The protests are there for a reason... And whether I liked it or not.... I learnt the "big money" trade, where the "strong hands" set fire to my industry.

Im a simple kind of guy, supply and demand is pretty easy to grasp... And in the world of speculating, you don't have to want oil/metals/food... You don't even have to take delivery of it...

But you do need to make money.

I was made out a fool by a trader who took my search for a physical consumer as revenue loss. The arbitrage is king in the world of models, and 3 month spreads.

The sad part is that he was right... To a point.

Eurozone crisis anyone?

Tumblr!

Am going to start posting on tumblr, which should turn up in a bar on this blog... I hope.

Obituary

Shaikh Saqr Al Qasimi has passed away. My heart goes out to the people of RAK, and hope that their future remains ever brighter.

A month ago...

Alot has changed in the world economy,.,. As they do. Gold prices hit record highs, germany did well, and the various currency are freaking out. Locally the Dubai bond issue was on the news... So was the DEWA 2 bond. So is the Axiom IPO.

So

"back from the brink of a depression", to quote US president Barrack Obama on the world econom at a UN gathering. Thats not to say there isnt any trouble.

If you had me commenting on the US, well, lets just Bernakake (chairman of the federal reserve) has his hands full. And its not much better here.

Food for thought:

- For an economy so soon out of a contraction, is it prudent to have an issuance of long-term debt (bonds) so soon?

- Why bonds, and not traditional loans?

- The last recession in Dubai lasted 5 years (different circumstances, I know)

Intresting post

An intresting discussion on mixed marriages on aethoughts.blogspot.com

Greetings from bahrain...

The last ten days...

During these last ren days of ramadan, a time of piety and calm, I want to shamelessly plug things on this blog. The first would be the financial blog, suqalmal.blogspot.com. The author Abu Arqala, has put me onto an article that hasnt recieved enough relevance in the mainstream media in my opinion. Its about the sale of the legacy assets of Dubai: Port Rashid and JAFZA among others.... These are Dubai's prized assets, with Port Rashid being one of Shk Rashid's, one of the founding fathers of the nation, greatest gifts to his flock. The link is www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67O22Z20100825, with more at www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67P2WJ20100826 .

 

This ramadan is a time of reflection, and indeed, prayer on moves such as this, and how things have changed. Which brings me to the next plug: the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding (SMCCU). This is a cozy little majlis in old Bastakia where local volunteers teach expats about traditional UAE culture and Islam, and have been maintaining an outreach program since 1992. It has a few different programs, including an iftar that Ive been volunteering for the past 2 ramadans.  A link: http://www.dubai-online.com/attractions/smccu.htm, dont try their main site (its terrible).

 

So if anyone wants to hear my views in person this ramadan, come on over to Bastakia.

 

Also, being that ramadan is a time of giving, keep in mind that an appeal was put out this ramadan by the red crescent for funds. The Pakistan crisis is not going to get better, and their is alot of pain to put out. We might have our problems, but if you can read this blog, youve got electricity.

 

Ramadan kareem, and enjoy your eid too...

BB and other matters...

With everyone freaking out over the banning of blackeberrys (BB) in the UAE. Let me just throw a few facts and figures out there. Total Mideast figures for BB number less than 3 million off the top of my head. UAE and Saudi (the two GCC states planning on banning the BB) estimates are at 1.2 million users... Total worldwide usage? Somewhere in the region of 46 million users. In terms of smartphone operating systems, Google Android is the fastest growing as of late , Iphone IOS has a bigger slice the pie, whereas BB OS has the biggest chunk of the pie. Period.

So lets be clear that banning the BB is detrimental, as it denies access to a mature technology.

The thing is the UAE has one of the highest penetration rates of BB at 11% of total usage, with 500,000 units shipped here last year (off the top of my head again)

1.2 million handsets isnt a drop in the bucket for RIM, the manufacturer of the BB, and isnt something to be scoffed at by etisalat, where 11% of a market is a lot of money for what is essentially a monopoly.

The future will depend on who will hold out more?...

My fears aren't over your standard teenage, tween, or social freakonature with a BB. Im more worried about the impact on business standards. To remove the BB is to remove a business tool, as the the very structure of the BB lends itself well to business emails. Anyone who has used both will know what I am talking about. The standard business smartphone around the world is the BB, and what the TRA is doing is taking business back one tiny step backwards.

Lets make no bones about it, even if you argue alternatives are in place; the standard is being denied.

Hell, I didnt even like the BB.

Relationship managment

In this collective culture we have, Ive noticed that who you know counts. Its why majlises are around...

A majlis is not just a place to sit and talk. Its a place of thinking. Or at least its supposed to be IMO... This shouldn't be anything new to someone who has been here a few years, but every now and then I'm reminded of how deep it is.

Sitting with a friend yesterday he tells me of a majlis he was at where bigshots were discussing the future of our country. The day before that I was sitting with a friend who was telling me about meeting a man who could very well be a future minister... And that same day I considered going to a majlis where the "old gaurd's" children were probably watching the world cup.

Thinking out loud: We need more people to travel between the majlises. Staying at one tends to muddle thoughts. The point of a majlis is an exchange of ideas, which gets stale when the same people come to the same majlis.

Especially when things like the future of our country is being discussed...

Or the world cup

China

For all the good news that we have with our World Expo stand in China, and our trade deals with China...

I dont think we realize the depth of the Chinese business machine. After looking over some data, Im going to pose an interesting question: How much predatory business are we looking at from China?

I remember several months back, an article from Saudi about chinese dumping practices in the country were taking its toll. What about here...?

Im not saying this on heresay either, Ive seen data, and Ive sat with businesses. Ive even sat with colleagues, and I get the same reply... It has to go to the WTO.

I say, make it happen. In America there was a case where some Chinese manufacturers were dumping products with 10% margins... And the case started its way to the WTO...

How much do you think its here? and on a bigger issue: Why arent the statistics easily seen?

Start with the first question :-)

This week in quotes

 "(Although) he isn't my cousin, he is closely related to me". Al Ajmi tribal member on the Million's poet competition, where 40% of the winning vote was contributed by the individuals tribe. Tribalism vs logic.

 

"Honesty is a thing of the past", eldery relative's reply when pressed on whether he had read the business news. Which he didnt bother to.

 

"Dont let me die and Im burning", A manager after business hours. Taken from a discussion on the division of money and rights between shareholders. Ethics are always on duty.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Up again

What to talk about... The gulf bourses finally realizing they would be much better off consolidating? OR the babyface russian bomber? Or just blah...

Let the words flow, I suppose...

Its been 6 months since the dive in AD. If you looked at a map, I was right in the middle of the gulf. In the middle of nowhere. I saw hundreds of fish follow me as Id break the surface. I saw man with alot on his mind forgetting it all. He was both the humblest and the strangest adult Ive ever met. The man could just ask for anything, and he had the means to get it. Yet he slept on the ground when he travelled to poorer folks homes.

Awe-inspiring. I wouldve liked to know him better, just for the sake of learning his personality.

Its been awhile since Ive thought those thoughts. Ive met kings among men that looked like mice, and Ive met mice that roared like lions. I met a man, who was by all acounts a hulk of a man. Yet his fear of aging would show in his words, and his pettiness would show as he tried to hide and relive his youth. It was ironic that he was wisest when he looked oldest. I met a woman who would hide behind her children, hoping that through their innocence, she could hide her own materialism. I met a thief, and saw him relax around his victims, and starve himself because of his conscience. Ive met a man with a strong personality and a bad habit, resigned to its effect on his body and mind.

He was the strangest of them all. He was sharp, in the strangest ways. He was by all means, a great man. But he would willingly hurt himself because it was what he knew. He kept me up more than once. Habits are a dreadful thing. But to give up... Thats another matter.

Its too late too think like this... Gnight.

Tonight

Had trouble sleeping,

I was reading stones into schools, part two of the amazing story of Greg Mortenson, an american mountaineer who after nearly dying on K2 in Pakistan pledged to build schools, no matter what the hardship was, for the less well off people in life.

A heavy heart keeps me up. So ill write,.,.,

Its not enough to donate money, and small bits of your time to help someone. You have to donate a little peice of yourself. If you give the money, make sure it reaches the right people.

A good example was faced by a relative. A worker came wailing that his mother died... So a sizable sum was given to arrange for an immediate ticket, and for the burial. Only later was it realized that he took money from two other relatives, and who knows what really happened with that money...

Good intentions go a long way. But oversight is a better way...

Another good example is from the book... A down coat given after the 2005 kashmir quake was used to warm the hind legs of a goat, rather than the back of a human... Because shelter for the livestock was needed, and the locals had no other way of warming them...

....

Meanwhile, weve got corrupt officials giving themselves 50 million in bonuses, stealing from the people. Weve got people who should be on the front lines of oversight in some of the biggest banks here.... brought up on charges of corruption.

Kudos to the unsung heroes (slowly) catching them.

.....

So dear reader, how can you and I help in oversight?

Down with a sickness

Been meaning to update for awhile now... Damn stomach bug got me, and has progressed slowly into a viscous unknown thingy...

Two weeks its had me down... Intrestingly, there are some trees that we just cut down, and my mother was blaming that as having a hand in this, especially since my bros got sick too...

Stupid bugs.

Although I have to admit...

It brings the fragile state of mortality to mind. Its not everyday that you think about how weak we are. How many unknowns could smother life out of you. Whether your life is truly your own...

Thank God for sickness...

And pray that we overcome our trials whatever they may be....

Corporate speak: prebaked

I'm sitting at this well-funded corporate dinner, complete with salsa,
and nearly nekkid carnivale dancers shaking like their lives depended
on it.

And I wonder, is this what the arabian corporation is about?

Where is the compliance (ethics) department? I bring this up because
that governs conduct in and out of the working environment. Think
about this one... How many local corporations have ethics laws. More
importantly why isn't it required by law. No wonder corruption takes
root... It festers till its a criminal act to be stopped.

--
Sent from my mobile device

Working and planning

This post is really one that I can look back on and say,,, wow, what a life.

I hate waking up for work. I want a freer schedule. Instead, I now have to plan my damn weekends.

I miss my hippy lifestyle.

I miss my long hair (Ill assume im losing mine now)

I miss not having to shave.

I miss not giving a damn.

Yesterday, I went to a beach party, in casual clothes according to the invitation.

Its a beach party right?

Well, the invitation was for dinner in the VIP section... The guy pulling up next to me was dressed for a gala night out...

While I was dressed in my sandals...

I now have to think about stuff like that. I now have to lock myself in.

I thought itd never happen :-)

Essential reading

Dubai World... Might not be bailed out by Dubai govt money, according
to minister of finance on dubai tv...

His thoughts were that its not a government company.
Read more:
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/.../Dubai-government-will-not-
guarantee-Dubai-Worlds-debts-says-top-finance-official.html

How should capitalism run its course?

I highly reccomend this article:

http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/11/the-intrinsic-unimportance-of-dubai-world-and-the-important-wider-message-it-conveys/

My personal opinion is to tread carefully, lest creditors stifle
cashflow to trade here. An irrational fear... Or is it?

--
Sent from my mobile device

Eid tomorrow,.,.

Havent had much chance to post lately as work has been intense... So many different things to talk about, the one thing ill stick to: Party safely.

Eid mubarak everyone.

The working class

So I finally started work as an analyst, woohoo... Right?

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE my job, its got the right mix of factors
for me. But one thing was a conversation I had with my coworkers on
pay. We work at an industrial plant, and therefore our company has a
natural emphasis on production. Unfortunately the pay structure isn't.

At my company we seperate employees by tiers, with each tier based on
a mix of experience, nationality (emiritisation issues) and years on
the job and pay them accordingly. But no mention of performance? Now
I'm not saying that performance doesn't factor in to our performance,
I'm saying that it isn't an explicit factor of performance.

I know for a fact that certain sharja govt jobs pay only increases
according to degrees attained, regardless of experience and
performance.

Dubai has some choice jobs in that line too (biased to something or
the other) why no standardization?

More on this as I find out...

--
Sent from my mobile device

Cityscape ... The saga continues

My curiosity is my downfall... That's what had me try the fish and
chips place at Dubai mall (Terrible)

Granted, it mightve been horrible, but that's what you get for
thinking greasy spoons could actually pass for a good meal.

Curiousity also took me to cityscape.. Here it is in 2 points of view:

1, The buyer / economist :
Luckily, the hype was toned down this year. Nonetheless you had the
wow-me factor in some of the stands, and prices... Of note was the
quiter nakheel stand, the crazy AD stands, and the general mood of the
place.

AD is building itself up a lot like Dxb did, and I'm looking at bloom
developers... They have a prime piece of property ala palm jumeira, a
premium pricing scheme ala palm jumeira, and phases 2 and 3 ala palm
deira and jebel ali, and was announced at the heart of the reccession
ala the universe .

Anyone see a trend?

I'm not saying it won't work, I'm saying bide your time. Don't launch
at the wrong time, scale it down properly (which to blooms credit they
did)... But the facts of a global recession are still clear, slow and
steady wins the race.

The marketing hype is still unreasonable. No supertowers, but a lot of
hardsells. My opinion is to follow Trump jrs. Train of thought on this
years cityscape, and tread carefully on a risk vs reward basis.

2: the social commentary:

Suprisingly Meeras had a stand up. This was a real upset for me, as
I live in Jumeira. Meeras hasn't been too popular among some local
circles since they would ask for your home in return for compensation.
Some locals don't want to move. Some locals don't want homes and
money. Some locals don't want another few years of messed up roads,
and churned up coastline.

Especially Jumeira, a place filled with history, there is a lot that
can be had focusing on its essential beauty: the people, the history,
the integration, than with another "new dubai" destination like dubai
marina.

Maybe there will be concessions for it, and ill get the best of both
worlds. But I doubt it.

It wasn't just the fish hurtin me...

--

Dubai Metro

Mattar Al Tayer once said that an investment in infrastructure is
never a waste. He is right, and for that I salute him. This is the
crowning glory of modern dubai in my opinion. Its not those towers,
its not the fancy cars.

Its this.

This is on the level of the creek being built, or shindagha tunnel
being opened... Let's just hope it doesn't take too long to get the
kinks out of the system.

After all, I remember shindagha getting flooded when it rained too hard :-)

--
Sent from my mobile device