Monday, November 11, 2013

Blue waters



via Tumblr http://dxbnight.tumblr.com/post/66669184268/blue-waters

Sunday, May 26, 2013

Critical thinking and Dubai

It's been quite awhile since I last posted, and I've missed writing... So here I go:

In the past few months, the local news papers have been full of articles on improving economic conditions locally, a double-edged sword in my opinion.

The articles I chose to focus on where on new property launches from Emaar, the omnipresent developer, and a new bond issued by the government of Dubai.

Emaar's new project, a multi-use residential development named Mira, comes on the back of similar launches by government of Dubai linked entities. The project is just the first phase of many, in what i see as a concerted push for the real estate market's diversity. The list of new developments are in nearly every area of Dubai, from the historic creek area, to the deserts beyond Barsha.

Naturally with mega-projects the scale of Mira, with an estimated 25,000 units being introduced over the projects lifespan, the marketing campaigns are equally gigantic, sometimes with disastrous results. A quick search on YouTube on the Mira launch will show multiple camera angles of a fistfight happening at the launch. The hype generated from Mira, and these other projects is something that isn't to balked at, but embraced.

Real estate prices have steadily shot up in the past 8 months, which is a good sign for these developers... Right?

The sins of 2008-2009 are too easily forgotten, when Dubai had a massive real estate rally, and an equally massive crash. But to say that we have ignored this, would probably be a lie.

Debt is what caused the crash, and despite the best projections, it is debt that can wipe it all away.

There is nothing wrong with building new projects, as long as your underlying demand remains robust enough to do so. The troubles in the surrounding Arab states have proved to be a boon for the developers as money started flowing into the country. A casual stroll around the Dubai mall is now an exercise in picking out the different dialects of the GCC, and the mall has flourished with its new visitors.

Up to now, All is well, but I think of how transparency on debt could be our undoing. Despite assurances by various developers that prudence and cash reserves are in high supply, and that debt financing is only at 50%, I for one, can't figure out how much these projects will rely on banks. Nor will I ever.

It only takes one wrong turn in the market's direction for banks to come calling, and I hope it doesn't come to that.





Wednesday, October 03, 2012

The story of Deira

The heart of the spare parts souk isn't what many people might think of as magical... Deira, Dubai, isn't Cupertino, CA, where IPads and other revolutions are created.

And no, it's not the oppressive 3rd world sewer that other people think of either. It's a place like no other.

In the course of my everyday analysis of metals markets, I was unexpectedly given an assignment in the heart of Deira.

The assignment had me driving down to rundown building in the heart of the souk, with characters such as Raju, Ahmed, and Mohamed...

Raju was the suspected "jack-of-all-trades". He was at once, a pimp, a conman, anda  bootlegger. He was the former watchman, and knew the building well. Then there was Mohamed, who used an office meant for 5 people to house 30 workers. Like the Jews lost for 40 years, he was similarly lost trying to keep all 30 in the cramped office, and his modern-day slaves were put into a concrete box.

Ahmed was the sweaty accountant, who supposedly kept tabs on all accounts. He worried me the most, because he rented out the boxes, and knew about the building. But complacency, and perhaps want of a better life had him leave the building in disrepair. But he was the one I blamed first, then the building owner.

But despair wasn't the theme of this building:

Downstairs the shops had a different feel to them: The Awazi (Iranian) trader mentioned that the building he was in had more baraka (blessing) than the others, and it was a sentiment shared by other shops.

The offices on the mezzanine had a colorful character named Godsown... Who traded textiles, and ready-made garments with a smile. His role was the opposite of Raju's; he was at once a tenant, A community leader of the Nigerian's in the area, and a middle-man for other traders.

With the banter of deep-voiced Nigerians at the door-way, you'd see white-robed indian Ghora's pass by you to the mosque, as evening prayers called through the alleyways.

Hope was the theme of the building.

Hope is the theme of Deira.




Tuesday, June 05, 2012

A post for tomorrow

A few months into marriage, and I sit here thinking about how little I knew. And how little I still know.

I'm truly blessed to have been able to marry, as it isn't an easy feat. It also isn't easy to be a good husband... surprisingly.

Like with all things in life, it requires effort... And it's the little things that make it matter. Like a smile.

So keep smiling... And hopefully after 20 years you still will be... And I will be idling with you.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

A few notes on twitter

News that Shk. Khalifa ordered that children born to non emirati father but emirati mothers be granted citizenship is great news, and combined with Shk. Abdullah's interesting twitter posts deserve praise for new thinking in the federal govt.

Shk. Abdulla recently tweeted that to call someone's wife by her name (which is deliberately avoided by some men) isn't a taboo, and men should call their wives by their names, and not some vague reference.

Now, being recently married, this issue hits home with me. If I ever get a daughter, I'd be proud that these thoughts introduced by The Sheikhs, are addressing and protecting my daughter's dignity, and developing her rights as a member of society.

And maybe it's time to get active on twitter to see what else is being said...

Monday, January 09, 2012

Office blues

Sitting in my dreary office, reading the news...

My daily routine of staring blankly at a screen, thinking of how to work on reports back at my apartment (where the work is actually done) and putting dream scenarios on scrap paper is getting to me.

So I downloaded the blogger app, and am trying to say something meaningful in the off-chance I'd read it later, and spark an hour of more scenario planning.

Here goes: Yesterday, I was in speakers corner arguing with a Christian man on miracles... He then quotes me some verses from the Quran after a bit of intense googling, and awaits my response. I read the verse in Arabic, and proceed to tear him apart by saying his translation was wrong...

It turns out, that we were both out of context; and my ego got the best of me. By assuming that my reading was correct without even looking into context (in this case, the previous verse explained context), I was guilty of a sin... Pride.

Its Ironic how many sins come up when arguing religion.

And the whole day had that same recurring theme: From the born-agains claiming to be sin-free, to the raised voices and crass comments from the dissenters, and finally the petty squabbling between the preachers...

A little reflection goes a long way in purifying my thoughts and arguments, and Inshalla, speakers corner hasn't seen the last of (a more refined) me.

Inshalla...

Saturday, January 07, 2012

Connected Blogger to tumblr

Test... This should mean my blogs post to tumblr, and tumblr remains my photo log... Hopefully.

Edit: Tumblr remains photo, and video log.

Sunday, December 25, 2011

London - Eurozone - Traders - Protests

Lots of things have happened since my last real blog post, tumblrs mostly been an image feed...
Ive been based in London for the past 3 months, and still have a few months left... Made me realize Im getting old... And indeed dying...

Not of anything in particular, but the reality of aging is in the mirror. Thank God Im not blind to that.

Not that my stay here has been depressing, or anything, but stop reading if you think this is going in that direction :-)

My timing here is interesting: Ive been sent to basically gain insight on markets in a semi-internship type job... and what Im seeing is interesting.

Ive seen the "Occupy London" protest go from an organized mess, to rank and file tents... Ive talked to commodity traders who had no business in physical commodities work in cross-asset arbitrage models... Ive talked to a former producer-trader whose hedging strategy included "rebalancing"...

The protests are there for a reason... And whether I liked it or not.... I learnt the "big money" trade, where the "strong hands" set fire to my industry.

Im a simple kind of guy, supply and demand is pretty easy to grasp... And in the world of speculating, you don't have to want oil/metals/food... You don't even have to take delivery of it...

But you do need to make money.

I was made out a fool by a trader who took my search for a physical consumer as revenue loss. The arbitrage is king in the world of models, and 3 month spreads.

The sad part is that he was right... To a point.

Eurozone crisis anyone?

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Tumblr!

Am going to start posting on tumblr, which should turn up in a bar on this blog... I hope.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Obituary

Shaikh Saqr Al Qasimi has passed away. My heart goes out to the people of RAK, and hope that their future remains ever brighter.

Saturday, October 23, 2010

A month ago...

Alot has changed in the world economy,.,. As they do. Gold prices hit record highs, germany did well, and the various currency are freaking out. Locally the Dubai bond issue was on the news... So was the DEWA 2 bond. So is the Axiom IPO.

So

"back from the brink of a depression", to quote US president Barrack Obama on the world econom at a UN gathering. Thats not to say there isnt any trouble.

If you had me commenting on the US, well, lets just Bernakake (chairman of the federal reserve) has his hands full. And its not much better here.

Food for thought:

- For an economy so soon out of a contraction, is it prudent to have an issuance of long-term debt (bonds) so soon?

- Why bonds, and not traditional loans?

- The last recession in Dubai lasted 5 years (different circumstances, I know)

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Intresting post

An intresting discussion on mixed marriages on aethoughts.blogspot.com

Greetings from bahrain...

Thursday, September 02, 2010

The last ten days...

During these last ren days of ramadan, a time of piety and calm, I want to shamelessly plug things on this blog. The first would be the financial blog, suqalmal.blogspot.com. The author Abu Arqala, has put me onto an article that hasnt recieved enough relevance in the mainstream media in my opinion. Its about the sale of the legacy assets of Dubai: Port Rashid and JAFZA among others.... These are Dubai's prized assets, with Port Rashid being one of Shk Rashid's, one of the founding fathers of the nation, greatest gifts to his flock. The link is www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67O22Z20100825, with more at www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67P2WJ20100826 .
 
This ramadan is a time of reflection, and indeed, prayer on moves such as this, and how things have changed. Which brings me to the next plug: the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding (SMCCU). This is a cozy little majlis in old Bastakia where local volunteers teach expats about traditional UAE culture and Islam, and have been maintaining an outreach program since 1992. It has a few different programs, including an iftar that Ive been volunteering for the past 2 ramadans.  A link: http://www.dubai-online.com/attractions/smccu.htm, dont try their main site (its terrible).
 
So if anyone wants to hear my views in person this ramadan, come on over to Bastakia.
 
Also, being that ramadan is a time of giving, keep in mind that an appeal was put out this ramadan by the red crescent for funds. The Pakistan crisis is not going to get better, and their is alot of pain to put out. We might have our problems, but if you can read this blog, youve got electricity.
 
Ramadan kareem, and enjoy your eid too...

Thursday, August 05, 2010

BB and other matters...

With everyone freaking out over the banning of blackeberrys (BB) in the UAE. Let me just throw a few facts and figures out there. Total Mideast figures for BB number less than 3 million off the top of my head. UAE and Saudi (the two GCC states planning on banning the BB) estimates are at 1.2 million users... Total worldwide usage? Somewhere in the region of 46 million users. In terms of smartphone operating systems, Google Android is the fastest growing as of late , Iphone IOS has a bigger slice the pie, whereas BB OS has the biggest chunk of the pie. Period.

So lets be clear that banning the BB is detrimental, as it denies access to a mature technology.

The thing is the UAE has one of the highest penetration rates of BB at 11% of total usage, with 500,000 units shipped here last year (off the top of my head again)

1.2 million handsets isnt a drop in the bucket for RIM, the manufacturer of the BB, and isnt something to be scoffed at by etisalat, where 11% of a market is a lot of money for what is essentially a monopoly.

The future will depend on who will hold out more?...

My fears aren't over your standard teenage, tween, or social freakonature with a BB. Im more worried about the impact on business standards. To remove the BB is to remove a business tool, as the the very structure of the BB lends itself well to business emails. Anyone who has used both will know what I am talking about. The standard business smartphone around the world is the BB, and what the TRA is doing is taking business back one tiny step backwards.

Lets make no bones about it, even if you argue alternatives are in place; the standard is being denied.

Hell, I didnt even like the BB.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Relationship managment

In this collective culture we have, Ive noticed that who you know counts. Its why majlises are around...

A majlis is not just a place to sit and talk. Its a place of thinking. Or at least its supposed to be IMO... This shouldn't be anything new to someone who has been here a few years, but every now and then I'm reminded of how deep it is.

Sitting with a friend yesterday he tells me of a majlis he was at where bigshots were discussing the future of our country. The day before that I was sitting with a friend who was telling me about meeting a man who could very well be a future minister... And that same day I considered going to a majlis where the "old gaurd's" children were probably watching the world cup.

Thinking out loud: We need more people to travel between the majlises. Staying at one tends to muddle thoughts. The point of a majlis is an exchange of ideas, which gets stale when the same people come to the same majlis.

Especially when things like the future of our country is being discussed...

Or the world cup

Monday, May 17, 2010

China

For all the good news that we have with our World Expo stand in China, and our trade deals with China...

I dont think we realize the depth of the Chinese business machine. After looking over some data, Im going to pose an interesting question: How much predatory business are we looking at from China?

I remember several months back, an article from Saudi about chinese dumping practices in the country were taking its toll. What about here...?

Im not saying this on heresay either, Ive seen data, and Ive sat with businesses. Ive even sat with colleagues, and I get the same reply... It has to go to the WTO.

I say, make it happen. In America there was a case where some Chinese manufacturers were dumping products with 10% margins... And the case started its way to the WTO...

How much do you think its here? and on a bigger issue: Why arent the statistics easily seen?

Start with the first question :-)

Monday, April 19, 2010

This week in quotes

 "(Although) he isn't my cousin, he is closely related to me". Al Ajmi tribal member on the Million's poet competition, where 40% of the winning vote was contributed by the individuals tribe. Tribalism vs logic.
 
"Honesty is a thing of the past", eldery relative's reply when pressed on whether he had read the business news. Which he didnt bother to.
 
"Dont let me die and Im burning", A manager after business hours. Taken from a discussion on the division of money and rights between shareholders. Ethics are always on duty.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Sunday, April 04, 2010

Up again

What to talk about... The gulf bourses finally realizing they would be much better off consolidating? OR the babyface russian bomber? Or just blah...

Let the words flow, I suppose...

Its been 6 months since the dive in AD. If you looked at a map, I was right in the middle of the gulf. In the middle of nowhere. I saw hundreds of fish follow me as Id break the surface. I saw man with alot on his mind forgetting it all. He was both the humblest and the strangest adult Ive ever met. The man could just ask for anything, and he had the means to get it. Yet he slept on the ground when he travelled to poorer folks homes.

Awe-inspiring. I wouldve liked to know him better, just for the sake of learning his personality.

Its been awhile since Ive thought those thoughts. Ive met kings among men that looked like mice, and Ive met mice that roared like lions. I met a man, who was by all acounts a hulk of a man. Yet his fear of aging would show in his words, and his pettiness would show as he tried to hide and relive his youth. It was ironic that he was wisest when he looked oldest. I met a woman who would hide behind her children, hoping that through their innocence, she could hide her own materialism. I met a thief, and saw him relax around his victims, and starve himself because of his conscience. Ive met a man with a strong personality and a bad habit, resigned to its effect on his body and mind.

He was the strangest of them all. He was sharp, in the strangest ways. He was by all means, a great man. But he would willingly hurt himself because it was what he knew. He kept me up more than once. Habits are a dreadful thing. But to give up... Thats another matter.

Its too late too think like this... Gnight.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Tonight

Had trouble sleeping,

I was reading stones into schools, part two of the amazing story of Greg Mortenson, an american mountaineer who after nearly dying on K2 in Pakistan pledged to build schools, no matter what the hardship was, for the less well off people in life.

A heavy heart keeps me up. So ill write,.,.,

Its not enough to donate money, and small bits of your time to help someone. You have to donate a little peice of yourself. If you give the money, make sure it reaches the right people.

A good example was faced by a relative. A worker came wailing that his mother died... So a sizable sum was given to arrange for an immediate ticket, and for the burial. Only later was it realized that he took money from two other relatives, and who knows what really happened with that money...

Good intentions go a long way. But oversight is a better way...

Another good example is from the book... A down coat given after the 2005 kashmir quake was used to warm the hind legs of a goat, rather than the back of a human... Because shelter for the livestock was needed, and the locals had no other way of warming them...

....

Meanwhile, weve got corrupt officials giving themselves 50 million in bonuses, stealing from the people. Weve got people who should be on the front lines of oversight in some of the biggest banks here.... brought up on charges of corruption.

Kudos to the unsung heroes (slowly) catching them.

.....

So dear reader, how can you and I help in oversight?

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Down with a sickness

Been meaning to update for awhile now... Damn stomach bug got me, and has progressed slowly into a viscous unknown thingy...

Two weeks its had me down... Intrestingly, there are some trees that we just cut down, and my mother was blaming that as having a hand in this, especially since my bros got sick too...

Stupid bugs.

Although I have to admit...

It brings the fragile state of mortality to mind. Its not everyday that you think about how weak we are. How many unknowns could smother life out of you. Whether your life is truly your own...

Thank God for sickness...

And pray that we overcome our trials whatever they may be....